Post Season Scenarios 2024
#1 Seed (Playoff BYE)
Pirates clinch with: one more win.
In my opinion, the most likely scenario for the 1 seed is that the Pirates hold on, as they hold the record advantage and have the tiebreaker on everyone.
Sacks in the City clinch with: Winning out AND Pirates lose out.
This is the only other scenario that seems close to possible.
PAJ clinch with: Winning out AND Pirates lose out AND Sacks lose one plus game.
Idk chief.
WFT clinch with: Winning out AND Pirates losing out AND Sacks, PAJ loses one plus game each.
The most unlikely in my opinion. WFT winning out and Pirates losing out is also the only way WFT can win the division now.
#2 Seed (Playoff BYE)
Assuming Pirates Clinch #1
Sacks clinch with: Winning out OR WFT, PAJ both finish with same record as Sacks or worse.
Fairly likely scenario for the two seed. Sacks have tiebreakers over PAJ and WFT, which means they control their own destiny.
PAJ clinch with: Winning out and Sacks lose a game.
PAJ needs a little help to get the 2 seed, but it's not completely outlandish. This is PAJ's only path to #2.
WFT clinch with: Winning out AND PAJ, Sacks both lose a game.
With PAJ's schedule, this feels very unlikely.
Sharks clinch with: Winning out AND WFT, PAJ, Sacks all lose out.
By far the most unlikely scenario, but the Sharks do still have a path to the BYE. This is the Sharks only route to the #2 seed since they cannot pass the Pirates.
Note: if WFT, PAJ, and Sacks all win out (and Pirates win one game), the seeding would be:
1. Pirates 2. Sacks 3. PAJ 4. WFT 5. Sharks 6. Winner of 6 seed
Assuming Pirates Don't Clinch #1 (meaning Pirates lose out)
Pirates clinch with: Two of WFT, PAJ, or Sacks lose at least one game.
If all three lost one game, the Pirates would clinch the #1 seed.
WFT clinch with: Winning out AND one of PAJ, Sacks lose at least one game.
#6 Seed
The Blue Waffles clinch with: winning out.
The Waffles control their own destiny down the stretch.
The Orcas clinch with: winning one more game than The Blue Waffles.
The Orcas need to get a win on the board if they want to make it.
Toilet BYE Scenarios
Slat's Slimes can avoid a toilet BYE by: Winning one more game.
The simplest path forward is for the Slimes to beat GIRTH this week. This would lock the Punters and GIRTH into the toilet BYEs.
Muff Punters can avoid a toilet BYE by: winning out, Slimes lose out
The Punters need some serious help from the Slimes to escape the toilet BYE. This looks very unlikely, as I don't think the Punters can win out.
GIRTH can avoid a toilet BYE by: winning out, Slimes lose out, Punters lose out
This seems slightly more likely than the Punters avoiding the BYE, since GIRTH has a chance to make things interesting vs. the Slimes this week. They'd still need help in week 14 AND to win. Considering this team has one win on the season, I doubt this is happening.